Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s

The Singularity is Near, written in 2005; predictions for the 2010s

Searched for keywords: within, 20[2x], 20[1x], in the next decade, decade, etc.

The 2010 Scenario. There predictions are all part of a somewhat narrative section:

Overall track record:

From the Wikipedia page for The Age of Spiritual Machines: Predictions for 2019, written in 1999.

After tabulating the above, I found a goldmine of a Wikipedia page: Predictions made by Ray Kurzweil



Kurzweil proves surprisingly prescient, but the specific technologies he’s auguring (wearable computers, nanotechnology, virtual reality, etc.) don’t always come to pass. Still, an accuracy of ~ 1 in 3 is surprisingly good, in particular if one considers that these predictions were made 20 years in advance (!). This is consistent with the 36% found in 2017

Bonus: The Singularity is Near; predictions for the 2020s.

Bonus: Predictions for the year 2029, from The Age of Intelligent Machines (1999)