Giving a probability of 90% to 10 things and having 9 of them happen seems like a Superpower. Though I’m not there yet, I’ve been collecting predictions and written about the topic.

Predictor Explainer

Predictions and Prediction Markets at

Guesstimate A tool for pulling models & numbers out of your ass with style.

Another way to plot predictions

Gwern uses, whereas I’ve written my own software, available and tweakable in a Github repository: Calibration, partly because I like to make predictions about, f.ex., whether two of my friends are going to break up, partly because it didn’t take that long, and partly because I wanted to.