Highlights

  1. A prior for technological discontinuities
  2. Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements
  3. Forecasting Newsletter
  4. Past Pandemics
  5. Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment
  6. Amplifying generalist research via forecasting
  7. Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals & Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory & A Shapley Value Calculator
  8. Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850) & Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?
  9. Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration

Recent

Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Prizes in the EA Forum and LW.
The Making of a Top Forecaster
Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions

Effective Altruism & Rationality

On the EA Forum

Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Reasons why upvotes on the EA forum and LW don’t correlate that well with impact
Prizes in the EA Forum and LW
Thoughts on EA literature
International Supply Chain Accountability
A review of two books on survey-making
A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses
[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration
[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges
Shapley Values Reloaded: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.
Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals
Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples
EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.

On LessWrong

Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions
Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle
A prior for technological discontinuities
AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services

Forecasting Newsletter

Forecasting Newsletter on the EA Forum
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020 (experimental)
March 2020 (proof of concept)

Elsewhere

Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements
Discontinuous trends in technological progress
Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s
Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io’s Amplification Experiments
Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration
100 predicciones (es) A practical exercise in p-hacking
List of TAPs
List of Superpowers I want to steal
Paradox Party
Crocker’s rules
¿Siempre lo supiste? El sesgo de retrospección (es)
From a dark arts practitioner
Dark Arts: Narrativomancy
Consideraciones retreat Altruismo Efectivo Septiembre 2018 (es)
Mention in The Times in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool
Different ideals than my own

Programming and Maths | Programación y matemáticas

Github profile
Labeling, an R package which I mantain. It’s used in ggplot2, through the scales package, and thus has 500k+ downloads a month.
Predict, resolve and tally
Programming Languages I Know
Sci-py turns out to be particularly easy to use (en, Python)
Vienna Data Science Hackathon
Letter from O. Teichmüller to Landau
AI texts I’ve read
Sobre el problema de las parejas estables (es)
Mathematicians under the Nazis
Why is the integral which defines the logarithm the inverse of the exponential?
Programa de facturación (es)

Humanities | Humanidades.

Apuntes de una charla: Diálogos con la cultura, de Remedios Zafra (es)
Mentir mola (es)
¿Qué es atracar un banco en comparación con fundar un banco?: Selección de citas de Brecht. (es)
La desmundanalización de la iglesia (es)

Costumbrismo

Die Macht der Merkel (es)
Oh alemán, mi alemán (es)
Crónica de una gamberrada (es)

Philosophy | Filosofía.

Monomito y Muchimito: Adiós a los principios, de Odo Marquard (es)
La nomenclatura no es conocimiento (es)
Mucha granularidad sí, poca granularidad no (es)
Falacia de la subsunción (es)
El concepto griego de verdad & Patologías de la razón (es)
La paradoja del piano (es)
¿Quién (no) mataría a su profesor de Últimas Tendencias del Arte? (es)
Teorías de la cultura (es)
El evangelio según San Pedro (es)
El fetichismo del franquismo (es)

Language and Literature | Lenguaje y literatura.

Análisis de “Yo persigo una forma que no encuentra mi estilo”, de Rubén Darío (es)
Sinónimos de “fantástico” que empiecen por f (es)
En tanto que de rosa y azucena (es)
Englicismos (es)
Juan Rulfo vs García Márquez (es)
A buen entendedor, patada en los cojones (es)
Teoría de la literatura (es)
Las tildes en español (es)
Términos retóricos (es)
Algunas bonitas palabras en desuso (es)
Una interesante tesis doctoral de lingüística (es)
Todo lo que nunca has querido saber sobre literatura fantástica (mazacote) (es)
Criba palabras (es)
Más en mi antiguo blog

Fiction | Ficción

Las aventuras del aventurero Nuño Núñez (es)
El Partido Carlista Antimonárquico Español (es)

Written by others

Claudia Lombardo Biología para futuros presidentes (es)
Lucía Trillo Thinking fast and slow (es)
Alonso Campos Freedom regained, de Julian Baggini (es)

Miscellanea | Cajón de sastre.

Unfair chess
Webpage for a friend
La verdad sobre el caso Amancio Ortega (es)
Letimotiv: Ideas recurrentes (es)
The Mask

Media mentions

Mention in The Times in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool
The Making of a Top Forecaster