Highlights

  1. A prior for technological discontinuities
  2. Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements
  3. Forecasting Newsletter
  4. Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities
  5. Big List of Cause Candidates
  6. Amplifying generalist research via forecasting
  7. Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals & Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory & A Shapley Value Calculator
  8. Estimating Value Sequence.
  9. Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
  10. Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850) & Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?

Recent

A quantification of a miliNazi
Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers
Forecasting Postmortem: The Fall of Kabul
Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021
US Military Global Information Dominance Experiments
Metaforecast update: Better search, capture functionality, more platforms.
Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms
LongNowForMd: A tool for adding (a) for archive.org links to markdown files
Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations
2018-2019 Long Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?
What should the norms around privacy and evaluation in the EA community be?
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners
Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities

Effective Altruism & Rationality

On the EA Forum

Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers
A Funnel for Cause Candidates
Big List of Cause Candidates
An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher’s work
Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions
Reasons why upvotes on the EA forum and LW don’t correlate that well with impact
Prizes in the EA Forum and LW
Thoughts on EA literature
International Supply Chain Accountability
A review of two books on survey-making
A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses
[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration
[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges
Shapley Values Reloaded: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other misc.
Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals
Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples
EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.

On LessWrong

Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions
Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle
A prior for technological discontinuities
AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services

Forecasting Newsletter

On Substack
On the EA Forum

Elsewhere

Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements
Discontinuous trends in technological progress
Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s
Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io’s Amplification Experiments
Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration
100 predicciones (es) A practical exercise in p-hacking
List of TAPs
List of Superpowers I want to steal
Paradox Party
Crocker’s rules
¿Siempre lo supiste? El sesgo de retrospección (es)
From a dark arts practitioner
Dark Arts: Narrativomancy
Consideraciones retreat Altruismo Efectivo Septiembre 2018 (es)
Mention in The Times in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool
Different ideals than my own

Programming and Maths | Programación y matemáticas

Github profile
Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities
Labeling, an R package which I mantain. It’s used in ggplot2, through the scales package, and thus has 500k+ downloads a month.
Predict, resolve and tally
Letter from O. Teichmüller to Landau
Mathematicians under the Nazis
Q: Un programa para escribir y analizar poemas (es)
Programming Languages I Know
Sci-py turns out to be particularly easy to use (en, Python)
Vienna Data Science Hackathon
AI texts I’ve read
Sobre el problema de las parejas estables (es)
Why is the integral which defines the logarithm the inverse of the exponential?
Programa de facturación (es)

Humanities | Humanidades.

Apuntes de una charla: Diálogos con la cultura, de Remedios Zafra (es)
Mentir mola (es)
¿Qué es atracar un banco en comparación con fundar un banco?: Selección de citas de Brecht. (es)
La desmundanalización de la iglesia (es)

Costumbrismo

Die Macht der Merkel (es)
Oh alemán, mi alemán (es)
Crónica de una gamberrada (es)

Philosophy | Filosofía.

Monomito y Muchimito: Adiós a los principios, de Odo Marquard (es)
La nomenclatura no es conocimiento (es)
Mucha granularidad sí, poca granularidad no (es)
Falacia de la subsunción (es)
El concepto griego de verdad & Patologías de la razón (es)
La paradoja del piano (es)
¿Quién (no) mataría a su profesor de Últimas Tendencias del Arte? (es)
Teorías de la cultura (es)
El evangelio según San Pedro (es)
El fetichismo del franquismo (es)

Language and Literature | Lenguaje y literatura.

Análisis de “Yo persigo una forma que no encuentra mi estilo”, de Rubén Darío (es)
Q: Un programa para escribir y analizar poemas (es)
Sinónimos de “fantástico” que empiecen por f (es)
En tanto que de rosa y azucena (es)
Englicismos (es)
Juan Rulfo vs García Márquez (es)
A buen entendedor, patada en los cojones (es)
Teoría de la literatura (es)
Las tildes en español (es)
Términos retóricos (es)
Algunas bonitas palabras en desuso (es)
Una interesante tesis doctoral de lingüística (es)
Todo lo que nunca has querido saber sobre literatura fantástica (mazacote) (es)
Criba palabras (es)
Más en mi antiguo blog

Fiction | Ficción

Las aventuras del aventurero Nuño Núñez (es)
El Partido Carlista Antimonárquico Español (es)

Written by others

Claudia Lombardo Biología para futuros presidentes (es)
Lucía Trillo Thinking fast and slow (es)
Alonso Campos Freedom regained, de Julian Baggini (es)

Miscellanea | Cajón de sastre.

A quantification of a miliNazi
Unfair chess
Webpage for a friend
La verdad sobre el caso Amancio Ortega (es)
Letimotiv: Ideas recurrentes (es)
The Mask

Media mentions

Mention in The Times in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool
The Making of a Top Forecaster